Maryland Politics Gets Love Too

Despite the fact that I no longer live there, I pay more attention to Pennsylvania politics than I do Maryland politics. Maybe because it's because PA is a swing state. Maybe it's because I know more about Keystone State Politcs. Either way, here's some info on the state of national politics in the state in which I currently reside.

The Senate race, via the Baltimore Sun:

Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley is maintaining his lead over Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. in the race for Maryland governor, a new poll for The Sun shows, having countered a barrage of critical commercials expected to intensify over the six weeks until Election Day.

Still, Ehrlich, a Republican seeking re-election, remains a popular figure in a state where Democrats outnumber the GOP by about 2-to-1. Voters give Ehrlich and O'Malley - both 40-something telegenic politicians - about equal marks on leadership and ability to move the state forward, suggesting that the contest could wind up very close.

O'Malley, a Democrat, has a 6-percentage-point lead among likely voters, 50 percent to 44 percent, about the same margin he held over the Republican incumbent in July. But it is a much smaller advantage than the double-digit leads he held last year before Ehrlich began campaigning in earnest.

The Governor's Race, also from the Baltimore Sun:

With a down-to-the-wire primary behind him, Democratic Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin enters the U.S. Senate general election contest with an 11-point lead over his rival, Republican Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele, according to a new poll for The Sun.

Six weeks before the November vote, Cardin leads Steele, 51 percent to 40 percent, according to the statewide survey of 815 likely voters. But with Republican and Democratic parties expected to flood the state with money and appearances in the weeks to come, the race remains volatile.

So there you go. Steele is doing better among African Americans than your average (white) Republican would do, but both races have Democrats leading.

Maryland politics is actually pretty similar to Pennsylvania politics. There's a Baltimore node, a DC suburbs node, and the rural remainder. PA has the Philly node, the Pittsburgh node, and a somewhat larger rural remainder.

Now nobody can say that Maryland didn't get it's fair share.

Ben Cardin Michael Steele Martin O'Malley Bob Ehrlich Maryland 2006 Election

Maryland Politics

I guess since I live here, I should probably start figuring out the politics here.

Rasmussen reports that the Democratic Candidate for Governor, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley, leads incumbent Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich 50% to 43%.

The race for Governor has been tough for the incumbent from the start. Last summer, Ehrlich narrowly led O'Malley and was trailing Doug Duncan, a Democrat who left the race a few months ago.

Governor Ehrlich is a Republican chief executive in a famously Democratic-leaning state. Given the trouble the GOP has been having this year, his troubles are not surprising. Still, a seven-point deficit with more than two months to go is not insurmountable.

In a recent campaign ad, Ehrlich touts the state's support for schools, including Baltimore schools, while also criticizing Mayor O'Malley's stewardship of the Baltimore public school system. O'Malley's campaign counters that, under Governor Ehrlich, college has become too expensive.

Ehrlich enjoys 11% more support from GOP voters than O'Malley does from Democrats. But O'Malley does better with unaffiliated voters. The same differences show up in their favorable numbers, with Ehrlich viewed favorably by 89% of Republicans, O'Malley by 70% of Democrats.

O'Malley has a fifteen-point edge among those who regard the economy as the most important issue affecting their vote.

I haven't quite figured everything out here in Maryland, but I get the idea that the politics here is largely Baltimore vs. DC suburbs based. The two together are large enough to pretty much completely ignore what's going on in the western part of the state.

In a separate report, Rasmussen has Republican Senate Candidate Lt. Governor Michael Steele trailing both Democratic contenders.

Congressman Ben Cardin (D) leads Steele 47% to 42%. Former NAACP President Kweisi Mfume (D) leads the Republican 46% to 44% (see crosstabs). This sets the stage for a closely fought general election no matter which Democrat wins the September 12 primary.

[...]

Cardin was seen early on as the clear frontrunner in the race. More recently, Mfume is thought to be much more competitive in the Democratic primary. In our general election poll, among Democrats, Mfume now collects a few percentage points more support than Cardin does. Mfume is also favorably viewed by more Democrats. Cardin, though, is still thought to be the better organized and better funded candidate.

I've actually done shockingly little research on any of these candidates. I do know that race has been a theme in the election. The Washington Post covers that angle:

The most spirited moment of the first one-on-one debate since April between Maryland's two leading Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate yesterday wasn't over foreign or domestic policies. It was about the role of race in a potentially historic election that could pit two black candidates against each other.

The candidates did not attack each other, were cordial and appeared relaxed. The starkest difference came in the way they framed their candidacies less than one month before Democrats select their nominee from a crowded field of 18 hopefuls: Cardin presented himself as a lawmaker proud of his record, and Mfume painted himself as an outside agent of change.

For such a Blue State, there should be two major races this fall where either a Democrat or Republican could win. It should be fun...

Martin O'Malley Bob Ehrlich Michael Steele Ben Cardin Kweisi Mfume Maryland 2006 Election

Maryland Senate Race

A new Rasmussen Reports poll has Republican Lt. Governor Michael Steele trailing Democratic State Rep. Ben Cardin 45% to 35%.

The other Democratic candidate, Kweisi Mfume, leads Steele 42% to 38%.

Michael Steele Ben Cardin Kweisi Mfume Maryland Senate 2006