Santorum Fades

From a new Temple/Inquirer poll:

As U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum makes fighting global terrorism his closing pitch of the campaign, the latest Temple/Inquirer Poll shows that growing doubts about the Iraq war continue to erode support for Republicans.

More voters than a month ago say the war - which remains the defining issue in the November election - has made the country less safe from terrorism, while the percentage saying they feel safer has dropped. At the same time, a majority of voters, 52 percent, want the United States to either decrease troop levels in Iraq or pull out altogether.

[...]

The Temple/Inquirer poll shows Santorum has lost ground to his Democratic opponent, Bob Casey Jr. A month ago, Casey led the two-term senator by 11 points. The latest poll has Casey ahead 54 percent to 38 percent with 6 percent undecided.

A sixteen point spread is pretty impressive considering that the margin of error in the poll was only 3.8%.

The same poll found that Governor Rendell leads Lynn Swann 58-34.

It was also noted that in this election, Democrats were more loyal to their party, moderates we leaning very strongly towards Democratic candidates and even some moderate Republicans favored Dems.

All good news from the home state.

Rick Santorum Bob Casey, Jr Ed Rendell Lynn Swann 2006 Election Pennsylvania Politics

Santorum: Cash ≠ Love

From the Harrisburg Patriot News:

Twenty million dollars can buy a lot of things, but U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum is learning it can't buy him love.

Santorum, R-Pa., has burned through nearly $20 million and a 2-to-1 cash advantage over his Democratic challenger, state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr.

Santorum heads into the final three weeks of the campaign trailing Casey in the polls and now in money to spend.

"The assumption all along for this race was that Santorum's great advantage at the end of the day would be to use his financial resources to outgun Casey down the home stretch," said Chris Borick, a political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown.

"Those numbers are sobering for Republicans and the Santorum campaign," Borick said, adding, "They've lost the upper hand in an important area of the campaign."

Pennsylvanians aren't stupid. All the money in the world isn't going to buy Satorum any votes when the electorate has decided that 'man on dog' Santorum is out of line with the largely moderate state.

I'm no big fan of Bob Casey, Jr. A lot of people in Pennsylvania aren't. But Santorum has acted like the Senator from Kansas instead of the Senator from a North Eastern state that voted for both Gore and Kerry. A lot of Casey's votes will be votes against Santorum, but it's still a pickup for Democrats. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

Casey has more cash on hand and has raised more money in the last 90 days. Santorum is the least popular state wide official in Pennsylvania (only a 41% approval rating) and the state's Democratic standard bearer, Gov. Ed Rendell, is leading his GOP challenger by 21 points.

Santorum has spent $23.2 million over the election to raise his approval rating. Casey has spent only $14.7 million yet still leads - 46% to 41%.

Six years from now, Casey will be vulnerable (because people are voting against Santorum) unless he proves himself as a Senator but for now, I'm just glad that we'll be rid of Santorum.

Bob Casey Rick Santorum Pennsylvania Politics 2006 Election

PA Politics - Blue and Getting Bluer UPDATED

A new Quinnipiac poll is out for Pennsylvania and the results show that Pennsylvanians haven't lost their minds:

Democratic State Treasurer Robert Casey Jr. has regained his momentum in the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race and now leads incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. RickSantorum 51 - 39 percent among likely voters, with 4 percent for Green party candidate Carl Romanelli and 5 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Republicans back Sen. Santorum 77 - 17 percent, while Democrats back Casey 85 - 8 percent and independent voters back the Democrat 56 - 31 percent. In this survey,
17 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say they still might change their mind.

[...]

"Sen. Rick Santorum's comeback momentum has been stopped dead in the water. Santorum's attack ads against Casey have failed to spark voters' support, and 50 percent of voters say the Senator does not deserve re-election," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Quinnipiac's last poll had Santorum trailing by only 6 points, 48% to 42%.

All the trends are against Santorum. Bush is strongly disliked in Pennsylvania, his approval rating is only 38%. Pennsylvanians don't like Santorum personaly either. The Senator's approval rating is even lower at 35%. In addition, Rick Santorum's family lives in Virginia.

In general, things look good for Democrats in Pennsylvania

According to a Rasmussen Reports survey the Republican candidate for Governor of Pennsylvania, Lynn Swann, is trailing significantly. Ed Rendell, the incumbent, leads Swann 56% to 36%. Swann actually polled ahead of Rendell in the begining of the year.

In south eastern PA, in the suburbs of Philly, a Temple University/Philadelphia Inquirer poll has shown that strong disapproval of President Bush is affecting House races in the area:

"The Bush effect -- strongest in the southeast region -- is acting as a drag on Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, and tugs at GOP House incumbents in suburban Philadelphia, who are locked in three of the nation's most competitive races."

[...]

The Temple/Inquirer Poll asked respondents to rate their feelings toward candidates for Senate and governor on a scale of zero to 10.

Twenty-four percent of likely voters gave Santorum a zero, far more than any other candidate. Democrats were the most hostile, but 51 percent of independents rated Santorum below 5 - and 26 percent of these voters gave him a zero.

[...]

People who said they disapproved of Bush's performance were much more likely to indicate they would vote Democratic in House races, the poll found, a sign that GOP House members are tied in part to the president. Fifty-eight percent said they disapproved of the way Bush is doing his job, while 42 percent said they approved.

Republicans hold the three House seats outside Philadelphia - the Sixth, Seventh and Eighth Districts - and the Democratic candidates are considered competitive in each race. Together, the two major parties have reserved $16.1 million worth of TV advertising time in the Philadelphia market for House candidates in the last month of the campaign.

I miss all of the good campaign ads I used to see in Pennsylvania. Here in Maryland, they just assume you'll vote Democratic so they don't bother to buy air time. Sometimes we get ads from Virginia races. The Republican ads there are utterly contemptible and I don't even get satisfaction of voting against them...

UPDATE: 10:22 am

The Washington Post reports that the Green Party, which gathered signitures with Republican money and Republican staffers, will not be on the ballot:

HARRISBURG, Pa., Sept. 25 -- A judge said Monday that he will remove the Green Party candidate for U.S. Senate from the November ballot because the party did not have enough valid signatures in its nominating petitions.

Carl Romanelli's candidacy for the Pennsylvania seat had been challenged by state Democrats. Romanelli's bid was backed by Sen. Rick Santorum (R), who hoped that Romanelli could siphon votes from his Democratic opponent, state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr.

[...]

Commonwealth Court Judge James R. Kelley ruled that Romanelli, a railroad industry consultant from Wilkes-Barre, was 8,931 signatures shy of the 67,070 he needed to qualify as a minor-party candidate.

In general, I'm in favor of having as many parties and as many candidates running as possible. More views, more positions and more options is always good for voters. It allows them to have more than two colors to express themselves.

This, however, wasn't what was going on here. This was an effort by one candidate to 'double up' on the ballot.

Rick Santorum Bob Casey Jr. Ed Rendell Lynn Swann Pennsylvania 2006 Elections

Santorum 'Closing the Gap'

Anybody heard the rumors? The topic of the Republican noise machine's incessant blathering has happened across my home state and is spreading it's disinformation as usual.

For all the strident GOoPer shouting and arm-waving, the newly 'competitive' race between Rick Santorum and Bob Casey, Jr has just been polled by Rasmussen and Casey leads, 50% to 39%.

Yes, 11 points could be made up between now and November. But let's look at it this way: Among likely voters, 89% have already chosen a candidate. That leaves... 11% of likely voters undecided. ALL of them would have to break for Santorum, a Republican incumbent well below 50% approval rating, for him to break even.

Santorum was never a good fit for Pennsylvania. (Maybe because he and his family actually live in Virginia.) Between his low popularity, the disastrously low approval rating of George W. Bush in the Keystone State, and his Far-Right politics, I'm just not seeing him being re-elected.

More documentation of the Intellectual Dishonesty of the Republican Party...

Rick Santorum Bob Casey, Jr. Pennsylvania Senate 2006

Blue States Turning Bluer?

As a companion piece to my previous post, the Washington Post outlines some races in the North East (and other Blue States) where Democrats can unseat Republicans.

Rep. Nancy L. Johnson first won election to the 5th District in northwest Connecticut in 1982, and the popular former teacher has kept her seat for nearly a quarter-century. By most accounts, however, this achievement has been more in spite of her GOP affiliation than because of it. Voters perceive her as a moderate Yankee Republican and not a true conservative.

But as the electorate becomes more polarized around party identification, Democrats hope to make the "R" after her name and those of other Northeastern Republicans stand for "radioactive." This has happened to Johnson before. In 1996, she won by one percentage point when Democrats capitalized on her ties to then-Speaker Newt Gingrich. This year, she is running against Democratic state Sen. Chris Murphy.

Other 'Yankee Republicans' (aka Rockefeller Republicans) mentioned by the article include Michael Arcuri, a District Attorney running an uphill race against State Sen. Ray Meier for an open House seat in Upstate New York, and in my Home State's 6th District, Lois Murphy is mounting another run at Jim Gerlach who won by only some 6,000 votes in a district that includes some upscale Philly suburbs. Gerlach's close ties to Bush and to Jack Abramoff bode well for Murphy.

Similarly (but strangely different) is the case of Bob Casey Jr. in Pennsylvania. Running for U.S. Senate against Blue State aberration Rick Santorum, Casey, the son of popular ex-Governor of PA Bob Casey Sr., is a Anti-Choice Democrat. This information does a little to dispel the idea that the 'Blue' North East will always elect strong Progressives. In the end, Casey is a great step forward from Santorum for a 'Blue' state with many rural voters.

A combination of breaking the GOP's strangle hold on the South and Mid-West and reducing the number of Republicans (no matter how moderate) elected in solid 'Blue' states is a recipe for retaking the House and Senate.

Bob Casey Jr. Lois Murphy Chris Murphy Michael Arcuri Democrats 2006 Election

Home State Politics

Things are looking blue in Pennsylvania.

Strategic Vision (R) has released poll results showing many very good things. A few selections:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?
Approve 26%
Disapprove 64%
Undecided 10%

7. Would you like to see the United States Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade?
Yes 37%
No 55%
Undecided 8%

15. If the election for Governor was held today, and the choice was between Ed Rendell, the Democrat, Lynn Swann, the Republican, and Russ Diamond, the Independent, whom would you vote for?
Ed Rendell 49%
Lynn Swann 36%
Russ Diamond 2%
Undecided 13%

16. Do you approve or disapprove of United States Senator Rick Santorum's job performance?
Approve 46%
Disapprove 46%
Undecided 8%

17. If the election for United States Senate were held today, and the choice was between Robert Casey, Jr., the Democrat and Rick Santorum, the Republican, whom would you vote for?
Robert Casey 50%
Rick Santorum 40%
Other 2%
Undecided 8%

19. Who is your choice for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2008? (Democrats only)
Hillary Clinton 35%
Al Gore 16%
John Edwards 15%
Russ Feingold 8%
John Kerry 5%
Mark Warner 2%
Wesley Clark 2%
Joseph Biden 2%
Ed Rendell 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Tom Vilsak 1%
Barbara Boxer 1%
Undecided 10%

20. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 42%
John McCain 25%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Mitt Romney 5%
Bill Frist 4%
George Allen 3%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 13%

A lot of rather random information, I know. But here's what I'm going to glean from those numbers:

Pennsylvania is getting bluer. Yes, the state has voted for the Democratic candidate in the last four Presidential Elections and has a Democratic Governor, but the state in 2004 the state was balancing on a knife edge.

The Pittsburgh and Philly metro areas vote Democratic, but rapidly expanding suburbs could have been (and could still be) rich areas for Republicans. The 'Alabama in Between' Pittsburgh and Philly, especially areas north of Harrisburg, are as red as any part of Texas or Kansas. The rapidly shrinking Union base is a problem for Democrats, very similar to states like Michigan. Pennsylvania could conceivably end up being a lot like Ohio.

These new poll results, however, are encouraging. The Anti-Choice movement makes up only 37% of voters. George W. Bush's approval rating is far below the national average at just over 1 in 4. Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate and Governor have strong leads over their Republican opponents. Senator Santorum seems to be on his way out.

Good news all, but let's not get too confident. The Republicans didn't field the best candidates this cycle. (Lynn Swann?) There's a lot of anti-Bush sentiment that is carrying over into other elections. But still. Let's take good news when we get it.

Pennsylvania Rick Santorum Bob Casey Ed Rendell Lynn Swann

Slick Ricky.

Well, yeah, that too.

But I'm talking about the fact that Rick Santorum has managed to keep a little problem he has from becoming a campaign issue. And it's juicy. It cuts across party lines and across ideological divides.

It seems he doesn't live in Pennsylvania anymore.

From the Post-Gazette:

Before every election, the Post-Gazette routinely sends letters to the candidates seeking material for the Voters Guide. Back in March, as part of that process for the primary, the newspaper sent a letter to Rick Santorum at his home address, at least the one that he claims. Back from Penn Hills came the letter with a sticker from the U.S. Postal Service checked as "Not Deliverable As Addressed -- Unable To Forward."

That is all you need to know about the nasty dispute between the Republican Sen. Santorum and his Democratic opponent, Bob Casey Jr., in the November election. The whole thing is rooted in one inconvenient fact for Sen. Santorum: He doesn't live here anymore.

The editorial repeated the refrain "he doesn't live here any more" twice more each time in italics. Granted, Pittsburgh is already pretty Blue, but getting this issue raised is good. Having it stated so plainly is even better.

It should also make a good TV spot for the last week of the race. Ominous voice over with pictures of Santorum with all sorts of unpopular people like Jack Abramoff. "Rick Santorum isn't good for Pennsylvania. He doesn't want to support stemcell research, he doesn't want to raise the minimum wage, and he wants to restrict..." At the end, the spot goes to a black screen with the words "He doesn't live here anymore - Pittsburgh Post-Gazette." It plays to the anti-incumbent mood in the country. It works both on a literal and figurative level.

If the Democrats can't pull out a win in a Blue state against the Senator with the lowest approval rating who also doesn't live there anymore, the party - and the country - is in real trouble.

Rick Santorum Bob Casey Pennsylvania 2006 Election

Senator Matthews?

PA resident Will Bunch at Attywood, reports that my home state, Pennsylvania, may be, uh, graced by a Senate Run by none other than Chris Matthews. Working from a piece on Huffington Post, Will gives us this:

Can Matthews, a Philadelphia native who lives in the D.C. area, enter the race -- which is seen as a showdown between sagging GOP incumbent Rick Santorum and anemic Democratic rival Bob Casey Jr. -- at this late date? Yes...if he runs as an independent.

While the door is shut on entering the race as a Democrat or Republican -- Matthews is a former Democratic aide on Capitol Hill who has leaned rightward, seemingly, as a TV talking head, we're told that Matthews could have begun circulating petitions to run as an idenpendent on March 9 and has all the way until Aug. 1 to turn them in.

His reasons why it could happen:

1) Matthews may actually think he could get elected to the U.S. Senate as an independent. If the "Hardball" host positioned himself as the lone pro-choice candidate, that would place him in sync with a majority of Pennsylvania voters, something that the stridently anti-abortion Santorum and Casey are not.

Whatever you think of his ability as a TV pundit, Matthews realizes there's a huge bloc of voters -- affluent "soccer mom"-types in Philly's expansive suburbs -- who are conservative on economic issues but liberal on social ones. These voters decide most elections here, and they are clearly alienated by the two leading choices.

2) Matthews' entry in the race would probably help the GOP more than the Democrats -- and that would advance the political career of his own brother. Jim Matthews, now a Republican Montgomery County commissioner, will be Lynn Swann's running mate in November in a neck-and-neck showdown with incumbent Gov. Ed Rendell.

Of course all of this would have the Ross Perot effect but without the whole Clinton Winning thing. He would dilute the Democratic vote, probably delivering the seat to Rick Santorum.

Yes, this sentence could be replaced by wild conspiracy theories, but it won't be.

I think that while Matthews is probably tempted by what he thinks would be a cake-walk run to the U.S. Senate, he won't actually run. First, he knows that he'd be giving up an uber-cushy gig. Well paid and hugely popular. Second, he knows that he'd actually be giving up visibility. As "Chris Matthews" he's got the whole nation. Even as a 'celebrity senator' he'd be limited.

In the end, I don't think he'll run. He's loving the publicity, though, I'm sure. It feeds his ego.

Chris Matthews PA Senate Rick Santorum Bob Casey Jr.

More Polls from my Home State

A Quinnipiac poll shows that Bob Casey Jr. leads Rick Santorum by double digits - 48% to 37%. This is a slight increase for Santorum, but still a commanding lead for the challenger.

Interestingly, "Only 23 percent of Pennsylvania voters know that Casey is pro-life, while 8 percent think he is pro-choice and 69 percent don't know Casey's position on abortion."

If Casey wins, Pennsylvania will be represented in the Senate by a pro-choice Republican and an anti-choice Democrat.

Casey's abortion stance causes some problems with the Democratic Base. I can understand that. I agree, in most ways, with that. That said, I would rather have a anti-choice Dem in the senate than a pro-choice Republican. Having watched Specter cave to his party on the only vote he had to defend the right to choice, I would much rather have a vote for Harry Reid as majority leader.

America's Senate rewards 51 seats with 80% of the power. If we were able to set the rules, we wouldn't have to worry about these things, they wouldn't ever come to a vote.

Bob Casey Jr. Rick Santorum Abortion

Ricky's Traditional Values

The Washington Post has a fascinating piece on Rick Santorum in today's edition.

After saying in January that he would end his regular meetings with lobbyists, Sen. Rick Santorum (Pa.), the third-ranking GOP leader in the Senate, has continued to meet with many of the same lobbyists at the same time and on the same day of the week.

Pennsylvanians already have their hackles up over self-serving politicians - the State Representatives voted themselves a fat pay raise and it didn't sit well - so Bob Casey Jr. should be able to make some pretty good political hay out of this.

But in the month since his announcement, Santorum has held two meetings attended by the same core group of lobbyists, and has used the sessions to appeal for campaign aid, according to participants. Both of those meetings were convened at the same time as the previous meetings -- 8:30 a.m. -- on the same day of the week -- Tuesday -- and they lasted for about as long as the earlier meetings -- one hour.

Instead of being held in the Capitol, however, the recent meetings were conducted nearby...

For as much as I really don't like Bob Casey, it's better to have him in the Senate than Santorum. The fact that Santorum's campaign has received "more money from lobbyists than any other congressional candidacy thus far in the 2006 election cycle" should be enough to push Pennsylvania's junior Senator out. His politics never really reflected Pennsylvania anyway.

Rick Santorum Lobbying 2006 Elections