Home State Politics

Things are looking blue in Pennsylvania.

Strategic Vision (R) has released poll results showing many very good things. A few selections:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of President Bush's overall job performance?
Approve 26%
Disapprove 64%
Undecided 10%

7. Would you like to see the United States Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade?
Yes 37%
No 55%
Undecided 8%

15. If the election for Governor was held today, and the choice was between Ed Rendell, the Democrat, Lynn Swann, the Republican, and Russ Diamond, the Independent, whom would you vote for?
Ed Rendell 49%
Lynn Swann 36%
Russ Diamond 2%
Undecided 13%

16. Do you approve or disapprove of United States Senator Rick Santorum's job performance?
Approve 46%
Disapprove 46%
Undecided 8%

17. If the election for United States Senate were held today, and the choice was between Robert Casey, Jr., the Democrat and Rick Santorum, the Republican, whom would you vote for?
Robert Casey 50%
Rick Santorum 40%
Other 2%
Undecided 8%

19. Who is your choice for the Democratic Presidential nomination in 2008? (Democrats only)
Hillary Clinton 35%
Al Gore 16%
John Edwards 15%
Russ Feingold 8%
John Kerry 5%
Mark Warner 2%
Wesley Clark 2%
Joseph Biden 2%
Ed Rendell 1%
Evan Bayh 1%
Bill Richardson 1%
Tom Vilsak 1%
Barbara Boxer 1%
Undecided 10%

20. Who is your choice for the Republican Presidential nomination in 2008? (Republicans only)
Rudy Giuliani 42%
John McCain 25%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Mitt Romney 5%
Bill Frist 4%
George Allen 3%
Rick Santorum 1%
George Pataki 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 13%

A lot of rather random information, I know. But here's what I'm going to glean from those numbers:

Pennsylvania is getting bluer. Yes, the state has voted for the Democratic candidate in the last four Presidential Elections and has a Democratic Governor, but the state in 2004 the state was balancing on a knife edge.

The Pittsburgh and Philly metro areas vote Democratic, but rapidly expanding suburbs could have been (and could still be) rich areas for Republicans. The 'Alabama in Between' Pittsburgh and Philly, especially areas north of Harrisburg, are as red as any part of Texas or Kansas. The rapidly shrinking Union base is a problem for Democrats, very similar to states like Michigan. Pennsylvania could conceivably end up being a lot like Ohio.

These new poll results, however, are encouraging. The Anti-Choice movement makes up only 37% of voters. George W. Bush's approval rating is far below the national average at just over 1 in 4. Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate and Governor have strong leads over their Republican opponents. Senator Santorum seems to be on his way out.

Good news all, but let's not get too confident. The Republicans didn't field the best candidates this cycle. (Lynn Swann?) There's a lot of anti-Bush sentiment that is carrying over into other elections. But still. Let's take good news when we get it.

Pennsylvania Rick Santorum Bob Casey Ed Rendell Lynn Swann