Respectfully Stolen

From David Wasserman and Larry J. Sabato,U.Va. Center for Politics, at the CenterForPolitics.org:

SENATE: That Sixth-Seat Itch
(Currently 55 R, 44 D, 1 I/D)

Probable D Senate pick-ups: Pennsylvania, Montana
Leaning D Senate pick-ups: Missouri, Rhode Island, Ohio
The "Sixth Seat" needed to switch the Senate to D control, in order of probability: Tennessee, Arizona, Virginia (all currently R favored, though Tennessee is the most competitive)
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D Open Seats Leaning D: Maryland, Minnesota, Vermont
D Open Seats Leaning R: None
R Open Seats Leaning R: Tennessee
R Open Seats Leaning D: None
[Note: We have not listed Connecticut because the only two likely winners are Democratic nominee Ned Lamont and Senator Joe Lieberman, who--despite running now as an Indep endent--says he will still caucus as a Democrat. Republican nominee Alan Schlesinger is a weak candidate and is not a competitor, therefore this seat will effectively remain in Democratic hands whether Lamont of Lieberman wins.]

* * * * *

HOUSE: On the Fringe of Fifteen
(Currently 232 R, 202 D, 1 I/D)

Probable D House pick-ups: Pennsylvania-06
R Open Seats Leaning D: Texas-22, Colorado-07, Iowa-01
R Open Seats that are Toss-Ups: Arizona-08, Illinois-06, Minnesota-06, New York-24, Ohio-18
Possible D House pick-ups: Arizona-05, Connecticut-02, Connecticut-04, Connecticut-05, Florida-22, Indiana-02, Indiana-08, Indian a-09, Kentucky-04, North Carolina-11, New Mexico-01, New York-20, Ohio-01, Ohio-15, Pennsylvania-08, Pennsylvania-10, Texas-23, Virginia-02, Washington-08
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R Open Seats Leaning R: Florida-13, Wisconsin-08
D Open Seats Leaning R: None
D Open Seats that are Toss-Ups: None
D Open Seats Leaning D: Ohio-06, Vermont-AL

This looks good, I have to say. I'm particularly proud that Pennsylvania appears four times as likely Democratic pick-ups.

Can you imagine what would happen if either the House or Senate (or both!) were controlled by Democrats? Investigations that have been needed for half a decade would finally begin. All the blathering by the GOP about 'up or down votes' on Judges would disappear. Minimum wage legislation could be written and no 'poison pill' could be inserted to keep America's most marginal citizens from getting their first raise in a decade. Better energy policy. Real accountability for BushCo. on foreign affairs. Most of all, real work could be done and divisive and bigoted propositions like the Defense of Marriage Act would disappear. Just think! Democrats with subpoena powers...

Granted, November is still months away and the Party of Dirty Tricks isn't about to roll over and let what the majority of Americans think stop their gravy train. October Surprise? You Betcha.

This is why Republicans are so desperately trying to spin Lamont's win as a terrible tragedy. Do you think Cheney is concerned about Lamont's win because A:It will lead to less seats for the Democratic Party because they "purge[d] a man like Joe Lieberman" or B: Because it it signals a strong anti-Republican feeling among the population, one so strong it even defeated an incumbent Democrat? Hmm... I know Cheney cares deeply for the success of the Democratic Party, but I'm gonna go with B.

Watch for a major offensive in Iraq coming in the next few months. Perhaps the capture of a terrorist leader. Bombings of Iran are possible, but I'd bet on airstrikes in Syria. When choosing opponents, BushCo. will always choose the weaker one, even if it meanchoosingng a nation that poses no immediate threat to the American Public over one that might.

House of Representatives Senate Democrats Republicans Dick Cheney Ned Lamont October Surprise