Bush's Legacy

Bush's legacy will be determined by what happens in Iraq. He has no great achievements to fall back on. Things already look bad. The Telegraph reports that the Saudis seem to think it could get MUCH worse.

Saudi Arabia issued a stark warning yesterday that Iraq was in the grip of civil war which threatened to "suck in" neighbouring countries.

On a day when at least 17 more people were killed across Iraq, Riyadh expressed alarm that events were spiralling out of control.

"Civil war is a war between civilians and there is already war between civilians," Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, said.

"The threat of break-up in Iraq is a huge problem for the countries of the region, especially if the fighting is on a sectarian basis. This type of fighting sucks in other countries."
The Egyptians think the same thing. And if Kurdistan breaks away, the Iranians and the Turks are going to have some problems with that - we've known that from the beginning.

At best, the insurgency and nascent civil war in Iraq are quelled. The foreign fighters (and though not numerous, there are foreign fighters) from places like Saudi Arabia will take the skills they've learned in Iraq back to their home countries. This does not bode well for an authoritarian government not well liked by its people.

What could be worse is that a secular National Unity government in Iraq fails. An Islamic Republic, possibly at war with a separate Kurdistan, comes to power and makes strong ties to Iran. The 'revolution' spreads to other Islamic countries with large dissatisfied populations. Like Saudi Arabia.

Result: Islamic countries hostile to the United States control 38% of the worlds petroleum reserves.

That will make Herbert Hoover's legacy look positively triumphant in comparison.

No comments: