4.13.2006

Bush Poll Numbers Say: "You Need a War"

Rawstory reports on an operation in Iraq that will make your head swim.

The Pentagon is bypassing official US intelligence channels and turning to a dangerous and unruly cast of characters in order to create strife in Iran in preparation for any possible attack, former and current intelligence officials say.

One of the operational assets being used by the Defense Department is a right-wing terrorist organization known as Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK), which is being "run" in two southern regional areas of Iran, both bordering Pakistan. They are Balucistan, a Sunni stronghold, and Khuzestan, a Shia region where a series of recent attacks has left many dead and hundreds injured in the last three months.

[...]

“"The MEK is run by a brother and sister who were given bases in northern Baghdad by Saddam,"” the intelligence official told RAW STORY. "“The US army secured a key MEK facility 60 miles northwest of Baghdad shortly after the 2003 invasion, but they did not secure the MEK and let them basically be because [then Deputy Defense Secretary Paul] Wolfowitz was thinking ahead to Iran."”
In 2003 Wolfowitz was thinking about Iran. In 2001, they were thinking about Iraq. If it takes BushCo. two years to plan a war (my feeling is that they should probably take a little bit more) that puts us just about due.
This intelligence official, wishing to remain anonymous, confirmed the policy tensions and also described them as most departments on one side anPentagonntegon on the other.

"“We disarmed [the MEK] of major weapons but not small arms. [Secretary of Defense Donald] Rumsfeld was pushing to use them as a military special ops team, but policy infighting between their camp and Condi, but she was able to fight them off for a while,"” said the intelligence official. According to still another intelligence source, the policy infighting ended last year when Donald Rumsfeld, under pressure from Vice President Cheney, came up with a plan to "convert" the MEK by having them simply quit their organization.

"“These guys are nuts,"” this intelligence source said. "“Cambone and those guys made MEK members swear an oath to Democracy and resign from the MEK and then our guys incorporated them into their unit and trained them."”
The "Cambone" mentioned is Stephen Cambone, Undersecretary of Defense Intelligence.

So the Bush Administration has its plan for creating a 'Gulf of Tonkin' incident, allowing either air strikes against Iran or an all out invasion, which brings us back to the title of this post: Poll Numbers Sinking = War.

Bush figures that a new military adventure would rally the people around him, allowing him to regain the governmental power he had following his reelection. Whether this power is to push domestic policy or foreign policy is anybody's guess. The real question is, if the US takes some sort of military action against Iran, will the people follow?

I think it depends on the type of military intervention.

If it's a conventional weapons strike that destroys nascent nuclear facilites, I think Bush gets a temporary bump. There are a lot of people that have gotten beyond disliking Bush's policies and come to believe that Bush is dishonest. Though there will be some people backing the president after a strike, but the action won't be long lived enough to tip the scales.

If it's a nuclear strike against nuclear facilities, I think the President looses ground. I just don't think that the American people are going to embrace an American Leader that will forever be identified as the man who ordered the first nuclear attack since World War II.

The big question is if Bush invades. Or at least puts troops on the ground - some kind of Expeditionary Force to take control of nuclear facilities and destroy them. "Support the Troops" is a song that has worked for Bush in the past despite evidence that his administration isn't. That said, Bush has involved us in one unpopular war already. Will a new war be able to boost his numbers?

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